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Lloyd's predicts France will win World Cup

June 12, 2018

Lloyd’s has tipped France as the winners of the forthcoming 2018 FIFA World Cup, based on insurable value.

Citing research with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), the Corporation explained that France has the most expensive team competing in the tournament and should therefore emerge victorious and be crowned World Champions.

The findings show that France (£1.4bn), England (£1.17bn), Brazil (£1.1bn) have the three most expensive teams in terms of insurable value and that the average insurable value of one England player is more than the entire Panama squad.

The total collective value of all teams in this year’s tournament is estimated at £13.1bn.

The research also showed that forwards are the most valuable players, with their legs worth on average £19.2mn, whilst players aged between 18-24 years old have on average the highest insurable value at £20mn.

Lloyd’s highlighted that similar analysis was undertaken in collaboration with Cebr ahead of the 2014 FIFA World Cup, which correctly predicted that Germany would be victorious.

Cebr used players’ wages and endorsement incomes, alongside a collection of additional indicators, to construct an economic model which estimates players’ incomes until retirement. These projections formed the basis for assessing insurable values by player age, playing position and nationality.

Lloyd’s said the analysis enable it to predict who would qualify from their respective groups. After that, Lloyd’s plotted the path of each team in the knockout stages based upon their insurable values. The team with the highest insurable value in each match is the team Lloyd’s predicts to win and progress.

The research was supported by Sporting Intelligence, who provided anonymised footballer salary data for each of the 32 teams participating in the 2018 FIFA World Cup, based upon an indicative 30-man squad for each nation.

According to the analysis, Group G, which includes Belgium, England, Panama and Tunisia, has the highest insurable value at over £2.3bn.

Colombia, Japan, Poland and Senegal will battle it out in the ‘Group of Death’ for a place in the knockout stages – with just £26.5m separating the three teams in terms of valuation, Group H will be the most competitive in the tournament.

Victoria De’Ath, Lloyd’s Class of Business, said: “Our model correctly predicted the winner of the 2014 FIFA World Cup so we wanted to put it to the test once again. The analysis makes interesting reading for football fans who are preparing for the most popular and widely viewed sporting event in the world.

“The contrast between the teams at the top and bottom in terms of insurable value is staggering, with the top six national teams worth more than the other 26 combined. We can’t wait to see if some teams can defy the odds and make it through, and if the favourites can prove their worth.”