July 16, 2018
Lloyd’s accurately predicted that France would win the 2018 FIFA World Cup, based on insurable value.
On Sunday 15 July, France beat Croatia 4-2 in Moscow, becoming world champions for the second time in their history.
Lloyd’s based its prediction on research carried out in collaboration with the Centre for Economic and Business Research (Cebr), which estimated the collective value of all teams in this year’s tournament at £13.1bn.
At £1.4bn, France’s insured team value was the highest among the most expensive teams in terms of insurable value followed by England at £1.17bn and Brazil at £1.1bn.
This is the second time running that Lloyd’s correctly predicted the winners. Ahead of the 2014 FIFA World Cup, similar analysis was undertaken by Lloyd’s and Cebr which correctly forecast that Germany would win.
Cebr used players’ wages and endorsement incomes, alongside a collection of additional indicators, to construct an economic model which estimates players’ incomes until retirement.